In September 2025, the U.S. Producer Price Index for final demand rose 2.7% year-on-year and 0.3% month-on-month, continuing recent mild upward trends. The figure exceeded market expectations of 2.6%, indicating persistent inflationary pressure on the demand side. Over the past six months, year-on-year increases have fluctuated between 2.4% and 3.3%, reflecting an overall volatile upward pattern, underscoring strong cost-pass-through capacity amid sustained economic activity.
Sectoral analysis shows that current price gains are primarily driven by services, particularly in transportation, healthcare, and professional services—highlighting ongoing demand-pull inflation. While goods prices remained relatively stable, temporary rebounds in energy and manufacturing intermediate goods contributed to overall inflation. Notably, despite a modest 0.3% month-on-month rise, this marks three consecutive months of positive growth, suggesting inflation momentum has not yet significantly weakened.
Overall, the PPI data show no clear signs of reversal, with inflation resilience maintained under demand support. Although the Fed has repeatedly signaled declining tolerance for high inflation, further tightening pressure may arise if core inflation remains above target in coming months. Market expectations suggest October data will continue this trend, warranting close monitoring of linkages between services and labor markets.
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