In the third quarter of 2025, the U.S. economy maintained a moderate growth trajectory, with real GDP increasing by 2.3% year-on-year and rising at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.1% quarter-on-quarter—a slight improvement from the previous quarter’s 2.1%, reflecting resilient economic fundamentals. Over the past four quarters, U.S. growth has shown steady upward momentum, with year-on-year expansion ranging between 2.0% and 2.4%, indicating overall economic stability.
Consumer spending remains the primary driver of growth. Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) rose 2.6% year-on-year, consistently supporting domestic demand. However, private investment (GPDI) declined 0.3% year-on-year, signaling weak business appetite for capital equipment and inventory expansion, which weighed on growth. Meanwhile, net exports showed mixed performance: exports of goods and services increased 1.5%, while imports fell 1.8%, narrowing the trade deficit and contributing positively to growth.
Government consumption and investment grew 1.1% year-on-year—modest but stable—providing crucial support to the economy. Overall, current U.S. growth is largely driven by consumption and government spending, while sluggish private investment and volatile net exports highlight structural challenges. Should private sector investment fail to recover or external demand weaken, the sustainability of growth could be jeopardized.
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