In November 2025, the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI-U) rose 2.7% year-over-year, unchanged from the previous month, maintaining the stable inflation trend seen over the past six months. This indicates that overall price pressures remain moderate without clear signs of resurgence or retreat. Although inflation had briefly climbed to a peak of 3.0% in the prior six months, recent data suggest a stabilization in inflation trends, leading to reduced market expectations for further Federal Reserve rate hikes.
Notably, the monthly change data for November 2025 have not yet been released, making it impossible to assess short-term price movements. However, examining the year-over-year figures over the past six months reveals that after a gradual increase from June to October, inflation returned to 2.7% in November—indicating a potential pullback. This may reflect slowing growth in core goods and services prices, as well as diminishing impacts from energy price volatility.
Overall, while no significant turning point has emerged, inflation’s consistent stability around 2.7% over several months provides room for cautious monetary policy adjustments. If inflation remains low and monthly changes stabilize in the coming months, confidence in a potential Fed rate cut will strengthen. Markets are closely watching upcoming employment and consumer spending data to further assess whether the economy is entering a "soft landing" phase.
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