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In September 2025, U.S. retail sales, seasonally adjusted, reached $632.5 billion, marking a 0.1% month-on-month increase—the continuation of a gradual recovery since April. Although growth has been slowing, the six consecutive monthly gains have rebounded from early-year negative figures, indicating stabilization in the consumer market following prior weakness. Notably, the modest 0.1% rise in September fell significantly short of previous momentum, underscoring ongoing fragility in consumer spending. Sectoral data showed stronger performance in food services and drinking places, which rose 0.7% month-on-month—providing key support to overall retail sales. This rebound may reflect recovering service demand and increased dining out ahead of upcoming holidays. In contrast, non-store retail (including e-commerce) declined 0.7% month-on-month, signaling sluggish online consumption likely due to inventory adjustments, reduced promotional activity, and a shift toward in-store experiences. Overall, the current U.S. consumption pattern exhibits “offline recovery, online pressure.” While total retail sales continue expanding slowly, growth remains uneven: food services are the primary driver, whereas non-physical channels face downward headwinds. Without additional policy support or income growth, the recovery may remain subdued. Ongoing data will be critical for assessing future economic prospects.
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