In October 2025, UK average weekly earnings continued to reflect sustained wage pressure, with total pay including bonuses rising 4.7% year-on-year, according to the latest data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS). Regular pay, which excludes bonuses, increased by 4.6% over the same period, indicating broad-based growth in core earnings across the economy. The average weekly total pay reached £739, while regular pay stood at £687, both reflecting steady upward trends compared to the previous year. These figures suggest that labor market conditions remain relatively tight, with employers continuing to raise wages to attract and retain workers amid ongoing labor shortages in key sectors such as healthcare, hospitality, and skilled trades. The persistence of wage growth above pre-pandemic norms has reinforced concerns among policymakers about second-round inflation effects, where higher pay feeds into higher prices as businesses pass on labor costs to consumers.

The Bank of England has closely monitored wage developments as a critical indicator of underlying inflationary pressures. Although headline inflation has moderated in recent months, sustained growth in both total and regular pay suggests that domestic price pressures remain entrenched. At 4.6%, regular pay growth remains well above the historical average and close to levels typically associated with inflationary overheating. Economists warn that if wage increases are not matched by corresponding gains in productivity, they could contribute to a wage-price spiral, complicating the central bank’s efforts to bring inflation back to its 2% target sustainably. Some analysts anticipate that these latest figures may reduce the likelihood of near-term interest rate cuts, as the Monetary Policy Committee may opt to maintain restrictive policy settings to ensure inflation expectations remain anchored. While stronger wages benefit household incomes and support consumer spending, they also underscore the delicate balancing act facing policymakers: supporting economic stability without undermining hard-won progress in disinflation.