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In September 2025, the EU's Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.6% year-on-year and 0.1% month-on-month, reflecting a continued mild rebound in inflation pressure. Over the past six months, the inflation rate has shown a fluctuating upward trend, climbing from 2.4% in April to 2.6% in September, indicating that prices remain in a slow recovery phase. Although overall inflation did not experience a sharp rebound, it remains persistently above the European Central Bank’s 2% target, underscoring the necessity of maintaining a restrictive monetary policy. On a sectoral basis, food and services prices remained the primary drivers of inflation, both rising 3.6% year-on-year, highlighting ongoing pressure on living costs. Food prices, influenced by supply fluctuations and seasonal factors, continue to support inflation. In contrast, energy prices increased only 0.4% year-on-year, approaching stability, significantly weakening their inflationary impact. Non-energy industrial goods rose 0.8%, indicating limited inflationary pressure in manufacturing and consumer goods sectors. Core inflation indicators show that inflation excluding energy stood at 2.8%, while "near-core" inflation—excluding both food and energy—remained at 2.6%, both holding in elevated ranges. This suggests persistent inflation stickiness. Despite stabilizing energy prices, price transmission mechanisms in services and food sectors remain active, potentially constraining future monetary policy adjustments. Analysts note that if core inflation fails to decline meaningfully, the ECB may further assess policy flexibility in upcoming meetings.
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