In October 2025, inflation trends among the three major economies—China, the U.S., and the EU—showed significant divergence. China’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.2% year-on-year and 0.2% month-on-month, marking two consecutive months of positive growth, indicating gradual recovery in domestic demand. Core CPI rose 1.2% year-on-year, suggesting stable price pressures outside food and energy. In contrast, the U.S. has not yet released its October inflation data, but inflation had remained within a range of 2.4% to 3.0% for six consecutive months, reflecting persistent inflation stickiness. The EU recorded a 2.5% year-on-year inflation rate in October, slightly down from the previous month but still above its long-term target.
Recent trends reveal clear divergences. China’s inflation has trended downward since June, dipping to -0.3% in September before rebounding to 0.2% in October, underscoring that consumption recovery remains in an ongoing repair phase. Although EU inflation slowed, food and services inflation stood at 3.2% and 3.7%, respectively, serving as key drivers. Excluding energy, core inflation reached 2.7%, indicating that overall price pressures remain subdued but not alleviated. Notably, EU energy prices were flat year-on-year, signaling a shift in inflation drivers from energy to food and services.
Overall, the current global inflation landscape reflects "moderate rebound in China, high-level stabilization in the U.S. and EU." China’s inflation is supported by domestic demand recovery and low base effects, likely sustaining a weak rebound in the near term. Meanwhile, structural factors continue to constrain inflation in the U.S. and EU, particularly in services and food sectors where price stickiness remains strong. Future policy directions will depend on economic fundamentals and inflation expectations. Markets are closely watching whether the Fed and ECB will further adjust monetary policy this year. Key figures: China’s October CPI +0.2%, core CPI +1.2%; EU’s overall inflation 2.5%, core inflation 2.7%. These data provide critical reference points for assessing global economic recovery paths.
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